How MAI helped Shakti Japan prove the incremental value of Brand Search
A geo holdout test measured the effect of higher Brand Search investment on total Shopify GMV.
Background
Shakti Japan launched in 2022 as the Japanese arm of the global Shakti acupressure brand. Since then, the business has grown quickly, expanding from the core Shakti Mat and Pillow into multiple intensity levels, travel products, Footpads, Wonderball acupressure tools, accessories, and bundles. As a direct-to-consumer ecommerce business, Shakti Japan relies on digital marketing, social, creators, PR, and customer advocacy to grow its premium self-care offering.
The problem
Shakti Japan wanted to know whether increasing Brand Search investment was truly increasing total sales, or simply capturing demand that would otherwise convert organically. Platform-reported ROAS could not answer that question because attribution does not reveal what would have happened without the extra media investment. MAI first used a customer-journey model to forecast the potential impact after accounting for organic cannibalization, then designed a controlled geo experiment to validate the forecast against Shopify gross sales.
What MAI did
Validated the baseline
The experiment began with an A/A period to confirm comparable performance between the treatment and control groups. No statistically meaningful difference in daily GMV was observed, establishing a balanced baseline.
Ran a geo holdout test
During the A/B period, Brand Search investment increased in treatment markets while the control group remained unchanged. MAI measured performance using official Shopify gross sales rather than platform-attributed revenue.
Measured incremental GMV
By comparing changes in total GMV between the two groups, MAI isolated the incremental impact of the additional Brand Search investment from revenue that may have occurred organically.
Results
Actual performance exceeded the model's forecasted incremental ROAS, indicating that concerns about organic cannibalization were overstated. The statistically significant result gave Shakti Japan the confidence to scale Brand Search investment while continuing to monitor Search Impression Share and ROAS for headroom and early signs of saturation.
“Thanks MAI, this is a very encouraging result. Exactly the kind of value add we are looking for.”GUY POPE-MAYELL · SHAKTI JAPAN